Enrollment Study

Enrollment Projections and Residential Development

Update: As a result of Stonewall subdivision (development on Kohlwey Farm at Highway 60) being canceled per Grafton Community Development Director, on October 1, 2018, data on this webpage has been updated. Updates on the status of residential developments within the Cedarburg School District will be reflected within our research as that information is verified by the respective municipality officials.

2018-19 Pupil Count

In September of every year, each public school district in Wisconsin must conduct a pupil count in order to determine the number of resident students living in the district. This count is done on the third Friday of the month and is a major factor in determining revenue limits (the amount of revenue a district can collect) and state aid.

The pupil count for the Cedarburg School District was completed and submitted to the Department of Public Instruction (DPI) on October 5, 2018 and showed the District increasing their resident student count by 33 students when compared to last year. This increase is the largest natural increase of resident students that the District has seen in 15 years and will lead to additional state aid funding next year which is estimated to lessen the potential tax increase in 2019-20 if the November 2018 Referendum passes.

This increase in resident students aligns with the Residential Development Projections Model done by the Applied Population Laboratory that is included in the section below. This projection estimated that the number of resident students in the District would be 2,950 by 2018-19 (page 26 of the report) and the actual count for 2018-19 is 2,970.

As a result of this resident growth, the District needed to add three additional class sections to Thorson Elementary this year which has put that building above the recommended capacity. This increase has also continued to put capacity strains on three out four of the other buildings (Parkview, Westlawn and CHS) resulting in less instructional spaces being available for students. For more information on the current capacity situation at each of the Cedarburg School District buildings, please use the following link.

Applied Population Laboratory Enrollment Study

As part of the planning for the Long Range Master Plan (LRMP), the District hired a firm out of the University of Wisconsin-Madison to conduct an enrollment study in June 2017. Applied Population Laboratory (APL) did a thorough analysis of the District's demographics and how they could impact future enrollment numbers. Factors such as enrollment trends, historical birth data, population demographics, and housing turnover were just some of the data points that were used to conduct the study in an effort to predict where future enrollments may land. 

Five different methods were used as part of the APL study to develop enrollment projections with three out of the five showing an increase by 2026-27 in the current student population. Due to the increased amount of developments in the area, the Residential Development Projection saw the largest increase in the student population with 176 more resident students in the system by 2026-27 when compared to 2016-17 enrollment data. Since this study was based on membership, the analysis was conducted to project resident enrollment growth only. 

Applied Population Laboratory Enrollment Study

Map of Residential Developments

Currently, there are 15 approved subdivisions and/or residential developments within the Cedarburg School District that are in various stages of completion. There are also currently three (3) proposed developments and potentially multiple more in the works.

Within the 15 residential developments that are currently under construction, there are still 117 single-family homes and 325 multi-family units yet to be built as of March 2018. All of these developments, except for the Cedar Place Apartments (Stroebel Apartments in APL Population Study), are part of the Residential Development Projections included in the Applied Population Study listed above that indicate a growth in enrollment of 176 students by 2026-27 when compared to 2016-17 enrollment data. 

Graduation Cohort and Case Study Growth Projection

In addition to the APL enrollment study listed above, the District also conducted research on recent developments in the area and graduation cohort data from the past five years and found that the range of projected growth could be estimated to land between 120 and 250 more resident students over the next 5-7 years.

In the section below, there is information on the two case studies conducted by the District on two different developments in the area, one with single-family homes and the other with multi-family units. In these case studies, the number of single-family homes and multi-family units was compared to the number of Cedarburg School District students living in the development to determine a ratio of number of students per home or unit. Only Cedarburg School District students were counted as part of these studies since students attending private school do not impact capacity in the District. From these two studies, the data showed that there were 1.11 students per single-family home and 0.12 students per multi-family unit. These ratios were then applied to the number of single-family homes (117) and multi-family units (325) yet to be built (see the section above).

The other data point that was researched, cohort growth data, follows groups of students as they progress through the system moving from grade to grade each year (see the chart above). For example, from 2016-17 to 2017-18, the number of resident students in the graduation class of 2024 increased from 181 students to 194. In that example, that cohort grew by 7.18% from 2016-17 to 2017-18. This method is similar to the grade progression ratios used in the APL enrollment study with the main difference being that these numbers have been updated with actual counts and percentages from 2017-18 and 2018-19. In both studies, only resident student counts were used.

Residential Development Case Studies

In an effort to do a further analysis of how future enrollment growth may be impacted from residential development, the District conducted two case studies on various developments in the area.

The Topview Trail development, which is northwest of the intersection of Wauwatosa Road and Bridge Road in the City of Cedarburg (maps on the right), started building in January 2007 and currently has 82 out of 85 lots filled with homes. Out of those 82 homes, 57% have at least one (1) Cedarburg School District student in the residence. With some homes having multiple students, the total number of Cedarburg School District students in the development as of the 2017-18 school year is 91 with the average number of students per household in the entire development being 1.11. Of those 91 students, 58% are in grades 4K-5 (elementary), 21% are in grades 6-8 (middle school), and 21% are in grades 9-12 (high school). 

The Woodmere Townhomes, which are just north of Pioneer Road and east of Washington Avenue, were used as a case study to find out more about the number of students living within multi-family units. During the 2017-18 school year, the District has on record 15 students living within the Woodmere Townhomes out of the 126 units in the development. Based on the number of students living within the development and the number of units, the ratio of students per multi-family unit came to 0.12. 

Single-Family Home Permits

In the late 2000s, housing development was minimal in both the City and Town of Cedarburg mainly due to the Recession. However, since the early 2010s, the number of new single-family home permits being issued has seen an increase in both municipalities. With the number of available lots still available in the community and with the high demand of building a home in the Cedarburg community, the District anticipates this trend to continue over the next few years leading to an increase in the number of students in the system. 

Property Values

While it is not the perfect indicator of residential development since business development and changes to home values are factored into the total, analyzing local property value trends can also give an indication of the current status of development in the area. After multiple years of significant growth in the early 2000s and then a decrease in values during the housing crisis starting in 2008 and lasting through 2012, property values have been on a steading increase over the last couple of years. In fact, 2017 experienced the largest percentage increase in property values since 2006.

Total property values are driven by both residential and business development and by reassessment of values in the area. For the distrbution of the tax levy, the Cedarburg School District uses the TIF-Out fall values each year which come from the Wisconsin Department of Revenue. The TIF-Out value excludes Tax Incermental Finacing Districts (TIF).